Arkansas Rice: ‘Twas the Weather Killed the Acres

Somehow, we made another jump in planting progress in Monday’s report to 77% (Fig. 1).  Considering not much happened in the week prior that’s probably a good indication of our progress being further along simply by not planting anything.  Meaning more acres are shifting as we sit still.

Equipment had finally made it in the field this week when rains hit on Tuesday, but amounts were variable across the delta.  Returns to the field began Thursday where possible and the push will continue through the weekend.  However, 40-50% rain chances exist for Monday through Friday next week, so all bets are now off.

Should some or all of that rain occur, we’ll be knocking on June’s door.  Right now, the 7-day rainfall amounts don’t look good (Fig. 2), but let’s definitely hope we don’t see the bullseye shift to the east and drop some very large amounts.

In the past two years, rice prices were favorable enough over soybean to keep a push for acres into June, sometimes well into June.  That’s not the case this year, though rice prices have increased, soybean price and the calendar dictate a change.  Nobody wants to harvest rice in November and December, and soybean becomes the safer and potentially more profitable play.

AR Rice Planting Progress

Fig. 1. AR Rice Planting Progress, 2010-2021. Click Image to Enlarge

NOAA 7-day Precipitation Forecast

Fig. 2. NOAA 7-day precipitation forecast. Click Image to Enlarge




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