WASDE Wheat: Higher Domestic Use, Lower Exports, Increased Stocks

Photo: University of Arkansas

The initial outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21 on lower carry-in stocks offsetting higher production and imports.

All wheat production is projected at 1,872 million bushels, up 3 percent from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields. The all wheat yield is projected at 50.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels.

The first 2021 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,283 million bushels is up 10 percent from 2020, on increased Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter production. Total 2021/22 domestic use is projected 6 percent higher on higher feed and residual and food use.

A reduced wheat-corn price spread is expected to raise wheat feeding in the June-August quarter with annual feed and residual use projected at 170 million bushels, the highest since 2013/14. Food use is projected modestly higher at 963 million bushels, up 3 million from a revised 2020/21 estimate of 960 million.

Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, down 65 million from the revised 2020/21 exports. Several major exporters are projected to have larger supplies in 2021/22 and relatively high U.S. prices are expected to reduce U.S. competitiveness.

Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are 11 percent lower than last year at 774 million bushels, the lowest level in seven years. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is $6.50 per bushel, up $1.45 from last year’s revised price on reduced stocks and significantly higher U.S. corn prices.

The initial global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and marginally higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 8.1 million tons to 1,083.7 million with production projected at a record 789.0 million tons.

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Higher production for Argentina, the EU, UK, Morocco, Ukraine, and the United States is expected to more than offset reductions for Australia and Canada. Russia’s production of 85.0 million tons is similar to last year’s record on increased winter wheat area.

Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 7.8 million tons to a record 788.7 million, primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, continuing a long-term uptrend. Wheat feed and residual use is projected up relatively less than FSI as increases in the EU, UK, Russia, and the United States are partially offset by decreased feed use for China, Canada, and Australia.

Projected 2021/22 global trade is a record 202.4 million tons, up 2.8 million from last year on increased exportable supplies. Imports are projected to rise, primarily on increased demand from Algeria, Indonesia, the EU, and Middle East region.

China’s imports are projected slightly lower at 10.0 million tons but remain large with stocks continuing to decline despite higher production. Imports are also projected lower for Pakistan and Morocco on increased supplies. Russia is projected as the leading 2021/22 wheat exporter at 40.0 million tons.

Argentina, the EU, and Ukraine exports are also projected higher while Australia, Canada, and the United States are lower. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are modestly higher at 295.0 million tons with China accounting for 48 percent of the total.

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