WASDE Oilseeds: Lower U.S. Soybean Exports, Higher Crush, Ending Stocks

    Midseason soybean field. Photo: University of Minnesota

    The 2021/22 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for lower supplies, lower exports, higher crush, and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21. The soybean crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields.

    With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected down 3 percent from 2020/21. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 130.3 million tons, up 7.9 million from 2020/21.

    U.S. soybean crush for 2021/22 is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from the 2020/21 forecast, reflecting favorable crush margins. Soybean oil is expected to hold a higher share of the crush value as prices are buoyed by increased use of soybean oil as a feedstock in an expanding renewable diesel industry.

    The soybean oil balance sheet line entitled “Biodiesel” is replaced by “Biofuel” this month. The biofuel line includes soybean oil used for both biodiesel and renewable fuels as reported in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstocks Update, which replaced the Monthly Biodiesel Production Report.

    Prior year estimates for renewable fuel are based on data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the California Air Resource Board, and capacity information from industry.

    U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels, down 205 million from 2020/21. With lower soybean supplies and higher crush, the U.S. export share of global soybean trade is expected to decline to 33 percent from 36 percent in 2020/21. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 140 million bushels, up 20 million from the 2020/21 forecast.

    With prices for fall delivery above $14.00 per bushel in some locations, the 2021/22 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $13.85 per bushel, up $2.60 from 2020/21. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $400 per short ton, down $5.00 from the revised forecast for 2020/21. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 65.0 cents per pound, up 10 cents from the revised 2020/21 forecast.

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    Global oilseed supplies for 2021/22 are projected to increase 3 percent from 2020/21 to 732.4 million tons, with higher prices incentivizing an expansion of oilseed area and higher sunflowerseed production after the prior season’s yield-related declines. Global soybean production is forecast up 22.6 million tons to 385.5 million.

    Brazil’s crop is forecast at a record 144.0 million tons while Argentina’s crop rises 5.0 million tons to 52 million. Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflowerseed and rapeseed) is projected up 6 percent from 2020/21 on a recovery of sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, Russia, and the EU and increased canola for Canada.

    Global soybean exports are expected to increase 1 percent to 172.9 million tons. The U.S. share of global exports is forecast to decline while Brazil’s share increases from 50 percent in 2020/21 to 54 percent in 2021/22. China’s imports are forecast to increase 3 million tons to 103 million. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 91.1 million tons, up 4.6 million, with most of the increase in China and Brazil.

    Global vegetable oil consumption for 2021/22 is projected at 213.2 million tons, up 3.0 percent, led by increases for China and the United States. Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected at 22.4 million tons, down 3 percent from 2020/21 and the lowest in 11 years.

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