WADE Rice: Reduced Domestic Use, Exports, Stocks

The initial 2021/22 outlook for U.S. rice is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Total 2021/22 supplies are projected at 285.0 million cwt, down 2 percent from last year on lower production more than offsetting higher imports and significantly greater beginning stocks.

All rice production is projected at 203.6 million cwt, down 11 percent from the previous year on reduced harvested area. The 2021/22 projected all rice yield is 7,651 pounds per acre, up 32 pounds from last year.

Total 2021/22 imports are a record 38.5 million cwt with increases in both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. Total 2021/22 U.S. use is projected at 244.0 million cwt, down 2 percent from last year with both domestic and residual use and exports lower.

Total domestic and residual use is projected slightly lower at 156.0 million cwt with reduced supplies but still is the second largest on record. Total exports are projected at 88.0 million cwt on reduced supplies, higher U.S. prices, and increased export competition.

All rice 2021/22 ending stocks are projected at 41.0 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year. The 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $14.20 per cwt, up $0.30 from the 2020/21 revised SAFP.

World production for 2021/22 is projected at 505.4 million tons, a record, and up slightly from last year’s record. The largest production increases are expected from China, Thailand, and Bangladesh more than offsetting declines in India and the United States.

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Global 2021/22 rice consumption is projected at a record 513.3 million tons, up nearly 8.0 million from the previous year with most of this increase due to China with more rice expected for feed use.

Global exports for 2021/22 are projected at 46.5 million tons, slightly greater than last year as higher exports from Thailand, Paraguay, Burma, Cambodia, and Pakistan more than offset reductions for India, Vietnam, and the United States.

Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are 168.0 million tons, down 7.9 million from last year with China and India accounting for most of this reduction.

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