The cotton market is lower Tuesday as traders prepare for Wednesday’s WASDE for May. In addition, there are better chances for the Cotton Belt, at least from Texas to Georgia to expect decent rains.
For Wednesday’s report, the average trade estimate calls for a 2021-22 cotton crop of 17.23 million bales. The range of guesses ranges from 15.50 million to 19.18 million bales. Exports are expected to come in at 15.39 million bales versus 15.75 million for 2020-21. U.S. ending stocks are expected to come in at 3.67 million bales versus 3.90 million for 2020-21. World carryout is looking somewhat lower.
The six to 10- and eight to 14-day forecasts suggest above normal rainfall for the eastern two-thirds of Texas, while West Texas looks mostly normal rainfall. A rain front is moving across the Delta into the Southeast.
Monday’s Crop Progress Report showed 25% of the U.S. cotton crop planted, up from 16% the previous week, but down from 30% last year. The 10-year average is 27%. In Texas, 25% was planted, up from 19% last week, down from 35% a year ago but above the 10-year average at 23%.
After Wednesday’s report, the market will assess weekly exports-sales on Thursday.
Last week’s sales were way off average, but the actual shipment number was a marketing-year high.
For today, close-in support for July cotton is 84.90 cents and 83.70 cents, with resistance at 87.00 cents and 87.43 cents. The estimated morning volume is 4,160 contracts.