Despite somewhat higher Chicago markets, cotton is lower Tuesday morning. USDA reported a normal planting pace for cotton in its progress report Monday afternoon. The data showed the U.S. cotton crop is 16% planted, up from 12% last week, but down from 17% a year ago. For comparison, the 10-year average is 18%. The top producing states were Texas 19% planted, Georgia 13%, Mississippi 10%, Arkansas 7%, and Oklahoma 0%.
This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will publish its weekly export sales report. Last week’s numbers were non-supportive, but given the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar, business may have improved. China is on a week-long holiday until Thursday, so next week’s sales may be off.
The 6-10 day weather forecast for West Texas does show some improved chances for rainfall, but the odds are all at or under 30% for those days.
This Friday the Labor Department may report a historic number for jobs created in its monthly report. Some analysts are expecting nearly one million new jobs as the U.S. economy seems to be awakening after COVID-19. Contrast that possibility to the current plight of India. There, COVID infections are now averaging some 400,000 persons daily. The U.S. has stopped all international flights from India into the U.S. starting Tuesday.
For Tuesday, close-in support for July cotton is 87.97 cents and 84.71 cents, with resistance at 89.25 cents and 90.25 cents. The estimated morning volume is 4,731 contracts.