WASE Wheat: Lower Supplies, Demand, Higher Ending Stocks

Photo: Nathan Mueller, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered with a reduction in projected imports by 10 million bushels to 110 million on a lower than expected import pace with decreases in Durum and Hard Red Spring.

Domestic consumption is reduced primarily on less implied feed and residual use as well as a small reduction in seed use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, indicated less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters. As a result, annual 2020/21 feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.

Exports are unchanged this month, but there are offsetting by-class changes for White and Hard Red Winter exports. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are still 17 percent below last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for slightly smaller supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are lowered 0.5 million tons to 1,076.5 million but 2020/21 production remains at a record 776.5 million.

World 2020/21 consumption is increased 5.1 million tons to 781.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks continue to be large and domestic corn prices in China remain at a premium to wheat.

This is expected to further increase China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million.

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Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.2 million tons to a record 198.9 million, mostly on higher exports by Russia and the EU-27+UK. Russia’s exports are raised 0.5 million to 39.5 million despite the recent imposition of an export tax. Russia’s monthly exports continue to be large and its prices remain competitive internationally. EU-27+UK exports are increased 0.5 million tons to 27.5 million on a stronger than expected pace.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons to 295.5 million with China accounting for most of the reduction. Stocks in China in 2020/21 are projected to decline for the first time in eight years (or since 2012/13).

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