U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use. Soybean exports are raised mainly reflecting record exports through the first half of the marketing year. Soybean crush is reduced this month on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast and a higher projected extraction rate.
Seed use is reduced in line with plantings for the 2021/22 crop indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is reduced based on indications in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.
The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents. The soybean oil price is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents reflecting sharply higher prices in March. Higher soybean oil prices are expected to continue in coming months as additional renewable fuel capacity comes online. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $400 per short ton.
The 2020/21 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, exports, and stocks compared to last month. Global production is raised 2.2 million tons to 598.0 million, with higher soybean, rapeseed, and peanut output partly offset by lower palm kernel, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed.
Global soybean production is raised 1.4 million tons to 363.2 million, mainly reflecting a 2-million-ton increase to 136 million for Brazil. Favorable crop conditions in Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and updated harvest results from national and state agencies support higher yields.
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Partly offsetting is reduced soybean production for the EU-27+UK and Paraguay. Rapeseed and peanut production are increased for India on higher area estimates. Palm oil production is reduced for Malaysia on lower-than-expected output during January and February.
Global soybean crush is forecast lower mainly on lower crush for China, which is reduced 2 million tons to 96 million on the recent slow crushing pace. Global soybean exports are increased 1.2 million tons to 170.9 million.
Brazil, Russia, and U.S. exports are revised higher while Paraguay and Ukraine shipments are lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 3.1 million tons to 86.9 million, largely on higher stocks for China and Brazil.