After its strong finish Thursday, the cotton market is higher still Friday. Thursday’s weekly export sales were very positive, and much needed, to set a bullish tone for the session. Weekly export sales (week ending April 1) were 269,932 bales for the 2020/21, and 48,974 for the 2021/22.
This combined number was 318,906 bales. This compares to the five-week average of bales sold to 336,388. Cumulative sales for 2020/21 have reached 14.847 million bales, and now stand at 104% of USDA’s target.
Friday at 12:00 p.m. EDT, USDA will release its monthly crop information for April. Industry estimates call for 2020/21 production to be 14.67 million bales versus 14.70 million in the March report.
Exports are expected to be at 15.58 million bales compared to March’s 15.50 million, while ending stocks are looking to be 4.11 million bales, a reduction for 4.20 million seen in March. World ending stocks are expected to come in at 94.43 million bales versus 94.59 million in March.
The CFTC will issue its weekly commitment-of-traders report today at 4 p.m. EDT. The information does lag the current action of the ICE Futures, so some traders believe the managed-money speculators are already re-entering the seasonal long side of the market.
For Friday, support for May cotton is 80.70 cents and 80.00 cents, with resistance at 82.91 cents and 83.25 cents. The estimated morning volume is 8,230 contracts.