DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans Slumping, Corn Rising

    Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher, soybeans is 7 to 9 cents lower and wheat is flat to 11 cents higher.


    The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.10 lower. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.60. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $1.00.


    Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with choppy action continuing within the recent range and spreads firmer so far. New-crop flat Ethanol margins should remain range-bound with steady to slightly higher production on the weekly report showing production 10,000 barrels per day higher and stocks off 472,000 barrels per day. USDA will release the April WASDE on Friday morning, which is the main news this week, but the market will also be focusing on weather.

    Corn basis should remain sideways short term with ethanol and export movement needing to maintain the recent improvements in pace. Double-crop progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather for most, with early growth seeming to be OK for now. Rains and cooler weather will likely slow the early planting seen early in the week. On the May contract, chart resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $5.65 then the contract high at $5.85, with the 20-day at $5.50 nearby chart support then the $5.34 lower Bollinger Band.


    Soybeans are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with soft spread action as overall range-bound action continues with limited fresh news for soybeans. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher and oil is 1.15 cents to 1.25 cents lower. Oil continues to struggle to hold gains after the recent reversal, with meal gaining but well off the highs. The old-crop soybean balance sheet will be one of the main items watched on the WASDE Friday morning.

    Argentina is likely to see some dryness again as the crop moves forward while harvest will continue to progress in Brazil. New-crop export sales for the U.S. remain limited as well. The May soybean chart has resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $14.43, then the contract high at $14.65, which we did not take out on the surge last week, with the 20-day nearby support at midday, just above the market at $14.12 that we have faded through Wednesday morning, and then the $14.00 area.


    Wheat trade is flat to 11 cents higher with the higher protein wheats leading at midday, reversing the Tuesday action with Minneapolis the standout so far. The weaker trade in the dollar should help support trade, along the easing of oversold conditions. Weather in the Plains should encourage growth short term with more rains needed soon with temps cooling a bit through midweek. KC has narrowed to over a 55-cent discount to Chicago with Minneapolis 4 cents above Chicago. KC May on the chart has support at the low seen last week at $5.53, with resistance the 20-day at $5.81.

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