The supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is mostly unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes to exports and imports. White wheat exports are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely, Hard Red Winter exports are lowered as commitments to several Western Hemisphere markets are below a year ago.
The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are raised 3.5 million tons to 1,077.1 million.
Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Australia’s production is raised to a record 33.0 million tons, surpassing the previous 2016/17 record of 31.8 million.
World 2020/21 consumption is increased 6.6 million tons to 775.9 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks were large in January and February as its domestic corn prices remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further heighten China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 35.0 million.
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Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 2.9 million tons to a record 197.7 million, mostly on higher exports by Australia and Canada. Australia’s exports are raised on greater exportable supplies while Canada’s exports are increased on a continued strong pace.
The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, where imports are raised to 10.5 million and 3.4 million tons, respectively, on a continued robust pace. Projected 2020/21 imports for both countries are well above their 2019/20 imports.
Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 3.0 million tons to 301.2 million with most of the reduction due to increased consumption for China. However, global stocks are still slightly higher than 2019/20 with China and India holding 50 and 9 percent of the total, respectively.