WASDE Rice: Projected Prices Increased

Young rice crop. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The supply and demand outlook is unchanged for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.60 with increases in the NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Projected prices for both long-grain and Other States medium- and short-grain are both raised this month to $12.40 and $12.80 per cwt, respectively.

The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly larger supplies, higher consumption, nearly unchanged trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.2 million tons to 682.5 million, primarily on higher rice production for India more than offsetting reductions for Bangladesh and Australia.

India’s production is raised to a record 121.0 million tons on a record yield. This would be India’s fifth successively larger crop since 2016/17.

World 2020/21 consumption is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 504.7 million, primarily on more domestic use by India. World trade is virtually unchanged at 46.3 million tons as higher exports by India at a record 15.5 million are offset on reduced exports by Thailand and Brazil.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.3 million tons to 177.8 million, primarily on Bangladesh and Australia.

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