U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 are mostly unchanged this month. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.20 billion bushels and 2.25 billion bushels, respectively, ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Although current cash prices are significantly higher, prices received through January have averaged just over $10.00 per bushel, reflecting forward pricing at lower prices.
Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month.
Global 2020/21 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production is raised 0.7 million tons to 595.8 million, with higher soybean and rapeseed partly offset by lower palm kernel, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed.
Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to 134 million, reflecting a revision to the 2019/20 crop and this season’s expected yield trend. India’s soybean production is raised 0.2 million tons to 10.7 million based on updated government area data. Conversely, Argentina’s soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 47.5 million due to dry weather conditions over the past month.
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Global oilseed exports are raised 0.8 million tons to 194.7 million, mainly on higher rapeseed exports for Ukraine and Australia. Rapeseed imports are increased for the EU-27+UK where the crop is also raised to 17.1 million tons based on updated government data.
Global soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 million tons to 323.6 million as higher crush for Argentina and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China. Higher crush in Argentina results in higher meal and oil exports. Soybean crush for China is lowered 1 million tons to 98 million based on data to date.
Global soybean stocks are slightly higher, with increased stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.