Lackluster sales but improved shipments have the cotton market still trading with a choppy attitude. Ever since the big reversal high of last Thursday, the market has struggled to regain its bullish composure. Next week the market will look at supply-demand numbers from USDA, and those are expected to be underwhelming.
USDA’s weekly exports-sales was reported as follows:
Net sales of 169,000 RB for 2020/2021 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (65,300 RB, including 2,000 RB switched from China, 1,700 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 1,700 RB), Pakistan (33,600 RB), China (24,100 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Indonesia (23,200 RB, including 1,400 RB switched from Japan and decreases 2,800 RB), and Bangladesh (15,900 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Turkey (23,900 RB).
For 2021/2022, net sales of 40,600 RB were primarily for Vietnam (15,500 RB), China (13,200 RB), Guatemala (6,500 RB), Pakistan (2,600 RB), and Peru (1,500 RB). Exports of 377,400 RB were up 29 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports were primarily to Vietnam (98,800 RB), China (94,700 RB), Pakistan (49,700 RB), Turkey (27,600 RB), and Indonesia (22,700 RB).
Net sales of Pima totaling 7,800 RB were down 34 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (3,900 RB), Turkey (1,900 RB), India (1,600 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), and Italy (300 RB). Exports of 9,100 RB were down 26 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (2,600 RB), Vietnam (2,200 RB), Pakistan (1,100 RB), Peru (1,100 RB), and India (900 RB).
Friday, the Labor Department will release its unemployment data. Expectations are for 180,000 non-farm jobs versus last month’s 49,000 jobs created. Also on Friday, CFTC will release its commitment-of-traders data. It will be interesting to see how last Thursday’s “melt” affected the net speculative position.
Spot March cotton saw no notices issued today. The delivery period ends next Tuesday with the expiration of March futures.
For Friday, support for May cotton is 88.20 cents and 87.20 cents, with resistance at 90.00 cents and 90.75 cents. The estimated morning volume is 10,235 contracts.