DTN Cotton Closing: Keeping Sharp Gains

Defoliated cotton with unopen top bolls. Photo: University of Tennessee

The cotton market did hold on to a sizable portion of its early day rally. In fact, July cotton came within one tick of trading limit up. However, weakness in the grains, and other markets, did result in some speculative selling surfacing in cotton. However, the Dow Jones, a sometimes key cotton ally, was trading some 650 points higher, which helped buoy cotton.

This week the market will see new export sales on Monday. Last week saw stronger sales but weaker shipments. There are some thoughts a rising U.S. dollar from last week might hinder futures sales, so obviously each week’s report is substantially important. Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed above the 91-point mark for the first time since Feb. 1.

Last Thursday’s huge reversal pattern on cotton daily charts is bearishly influencing prices. Accordingly, some analysts feel the longer it takes the market to hurdle those “left behind” highs, the more the odds stacked against it to do so. With the Chicago grains lower Monday, and Tuesday being a possible counter-Tuesday for cotton, it may prove to be an interesting day.

Monday, May cotton closed at 91.57 cents, up 2.74 cents, July settled at 92.48 cents, up 2.75 cents and December cotton ended at 86.79 cents, up 2.46 cents; estimated volume was 46,204 contracts.

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