DTN Fertilizer Trends: Prices Continue to Spike Higher

©Debra L Ferguson

Retail fertilizer prices continued to climb sharply higher the second week of February 2021, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

For the second week in a row, all eight of the major fertilizers’ prices were higher by a significant amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more.

DAP and urea led the way higher. Both fertilizers were a staggering 21% more expensive compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $588 per ton, up $102, while urea was at $453/ton, up $80.

MAP was 17% more expensive, looking back to the prior month. The phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $642/ton, up $91.

Behind MAP, was UAN28 and UAN32, which were both 16% more expensive, looking back to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $243/ton, up $33, and UAN32 $285/ton, up $38.

Anhydrous was up 10% compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer has an average price of $524/ton, up $50.

Starter fertilizer, 10-34-0, was up 9% looking back to last month. The average price for 10-34-0 was $512/ton, up $43.

And, finally, potash was up 7% compared to the prior month. Potash had an average price of $398/ton, up $25.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.49/lb.N, up 2 cents from last month; anhydrous $0.32/lb.N, up 1 cent; UAN28 $0.43/lb.N, unchanged; and UAN32 $0.45/lb.N, up 3 cents.

Higher fertilizer prices in 2021 is the topic of a recent paper titled “Predicting fertilizer price in 2021” by Gregg Ibendahl, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (KSU) Extension.

The purpose of the paper was to update a 2019 price prediction model for anhydrous ammonia. The author said there is a correlation between fertilizer prices and the price of corn and oil.

“Economic theory tells us that higher prices for an output will cause producers to produce more by using more of the production inputs,” Ibendahl wrote. “Thus, higher corn prices lead to more nitrogen fertilizer per corn acre (i.e., increased demand for nitrogen fertilizer).”

As for what fertilizer prices will do in 2021, Ibendahl believes prices could continue to rise until at least the fall. His model predicts national anhydrous ammonia prices could reach $600 per ton before falling off some in the fall.

AgFax Weed Solutions


“This would be nearly a 50% increase over prices during the summer of 2020,” he wrote.

Higher anhydrous prices will likely lead to other fertilizers also increasing in price, Ibendahl said.

To read the entire KSU paper, click on the following link: here.

With retail fertilizer prices moving higher over recent months, all fertilizers are now higher in price from a year ago.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 are now 3% more expensive, both potash and anhydrous are 7% higher, 10-34-0 is 11% more expensive, urea is 25% more expensive, DAP is 42% higher and MAP is 48% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 10-14 2020 413 435 373 361
Mar 9-13 2020 407 432 370 377
Apr 6-10 2020 409 434 370 382
May 4-8 2020 413 433 370 388
Jun 1-5 2020 407 431 364 373
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 406 427 361 357
Jul 27-31 2020 410 429 358 355
Aug 24-28 2020 430 435 352 355
Sep 21-25 2020 434 453 338 361
Oct 19-23 2020 446 476 332 359
Nov 16-20 2020 455 488 336 358
Dec 14-18 2020 466 522 360 361
Jan 11-15 2021 486 551 373 373
Feb 8-12 2021 588 642 398 453
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 10-14 2020 464 490 235 277
Mar 9-13 2020 466 490 235 278
Apr 6-10 2020 468 492 235 278
May 4-8 2020 468 492 237 280
Jun 1-5 2020 468 475 236 276
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 468 461 233 272
Jul 27-31 2020 465 454 223 262
Aug 24-28 2020 464 442 219 258
Sep 21-25 2020 457 425 215 253
Oct 19-23 2020 456 424 209 249
Nov 16-20 2020 455 422 207 249
Dec 14-18 2020 463 450 210 253
Jan 11-15 2021 469 474 210 247
Feb 8-12 2021 512 524 243 285

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

The Latest


Send press releases to Ernst@Agfax.com.

View All Events


Send press releases to Ernst@Agfax.com.

View All Events