WASDE Wheat: Off-Setting Changes to Imports, Exports, Usage

Wheat harvest. Photo: K-State Research and Extension - Creative Commons

The supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is largely unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes to exports, imports, and food use. Hard Red Spring (HRS) and White exports are raised on stronger than expected sales and shipments, particularly to China. Conversely, Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports are reduced on a continued slow pace.

Durum imports are raised on the pace to date while HRS is lowered. Durum and HRS food use are raised while HRW and Soft Red Winter are lowered. These changes are mainly based on the NASS Flour Millings Products report and Census trade data.

The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $5.00 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for greater supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 0.8 million tons to 1,073.5 million. Global production is increased to a record 773.4 million tons as higher production in Kazakhstan more than offsets reduced production in Pakistan and Argentina

. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 9.8 million tons to 769.3 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China and increased food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India. China’s 2020/21 feed and residual use is raised to a record 30.0 million tons, surpassing the previous 2012/13 record of 26.0 million.

China’s domestic corn prices continue to be at a premium to wheat, encouraging greater wheat feed use. Additionally, increased auction volumes of old-crop stocks in China have expanded the availability of feed-quality wheat. India’s FSI is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 96.5 million as government stocks data indicate greater disappearance than previously estimated.

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This is likely the result of the inclusion of wheat products in India’s government food assistance programs to address economic disruptions caused by COVID-19.

Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.1 million tons to 194.8 million tons as higher exports for the EU-27+UK and Kazakhstan more than offset lower exports for Argentina. EU-27+UK exports are raised on a strong export pace and improved price competitiveness with Russia.

Kazakhstan exports are increased on its pace to date and greater exportable supplies. Argentina’s are lowered on reduced supplies and a slow export pace to date. The largest import change this month is for China, where imports are raised to 10.0 million tons on a continued robust pace.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 9.0 million tons to 304.2 million with most of the reductions due to increased consumption for China and India. However, global stocks remain record high with China and India holding 51 and 9 percent of the total, respectively.

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