WASDE Rice: Lower Exports, Higher Ending Stocks

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The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for stable supplies and domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 93.0 million, all for long-grain on the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments for long-grain milled rice. Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised by an equivalent amount to 39.4 million cwt.

The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.40 with increases in the NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The 2020/21 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.8 million tons to 682.3 million, primarily on higher rice production for Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines as global production is raised to a record high 504.0 million.

World 2020/21 consumption is increased 2.2 million tons to a record 504.2 million. The largest increase is for China, where more old-crop rice is expected to be fed due to rising domestic corn prices.

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World trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 46.3 million as higher exports by India more than offset reduced exports by Thailand. India’s exports are increased to a record 15.0 million tons as its supplies remain ample and its export prices continue to be the most competitive among major exporters.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 178.1 million, primarily on higher domestic use for China and larger exports for India.

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