WASDE Cotton: Slightly Higher Exports, Lower Ending Stocks

The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales to 15.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 4.3 million bales, equivalent to 24 percent of total disappearance.

The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 68 cents per pound, unchanged from January.

The 2020/21 world cotton forecasts include higher production, consumption, and imports, led by changes in China. World production is projected 1.3 million bales higher this month, with China’s forecast raised by 1.5 million bales as the daily rates of both ginnings and inspections in Xinjiang continue to show unusual late-season strength.

Reports from China continue to suggest 2020/21 cotton area in Xinjiang was little changed from last year, but government classing data now indicates yields could be about 10 percent higher, while lower in Eastern China. India’s production estimate is reduced 500,000 bales on increasing evidence of pest infestation, while Pakistan is 200,000 bales higher and Australia 100,000 bales higher.

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World consumption is projected 1.5 million bales higher this month, with China’s forecast 1.0 million bales higher reflecting growing domestic textile demand and exports. Much smaller increases are also included for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Turkey, while the outlook this month is for lower consumption in Indonesia and Thailand.

World trade is projected 350,000 bales higher than last month, with imports 500,000 bales higher for China, and smaller, partially offsetting changes elsewhere.

World ending stocks are almost 600,000 bales lower this month, at 95.7 million bales, 3.2 million bales lower than in 2019/20.

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