WASDE Coarse Grains: Higher Corn Exports, Lower Ending Stocks

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, reflecting historically large corn purchases by China. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel.

    Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is projected marginally higher to 1,438.9 million tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, lower consumption, and greater ending stocks relative to last month.

    Foreign corn production is up fractionally, with an increase for South Africa more than offsetting a reduction for Paraguay. For South Africa, production is raised based on higher indicated area. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is unchanged as greater area is offset by a reduction in yield. Slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West dampens yield prospects but very favorable prices boost area expectations.

    Major global trade changes for 2020/21 include higher projected corn exports for the United States, India, and South Africa. For 2019/20, Argentina and Brazil corn exports are raised for the local marketing year ending February 2021 based on larger-than-expected late-season shipments.

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    Corn imports for 2020/21 are increased for China, with partly offsetting reductions for the EU-27+UK, South Korea, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. China’s barley and sorghum imports are also higher this month, bringing total coarse grain imports to 40.3 million tons.

    Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are up relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for China, South Africa, and Mexico that are partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil.

    Global corn ending stocks, at 286.5 million tons, are up 2.7 million from last month.

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