DTN Grain Midday: Crops Mixed

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

Corn is 6 to 7 cents higher, soybeans are 7 to 9 cents lower, and wheat is 5 cents lower to 1 cent higher.

The U.S. stock market is flat with the Dow down 9. The dollar index is 25 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are flat with crude down $0.05. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $14.50.


Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher and steadily building strength overnight before starting to fade during the day session with weaker spread action. The big surprise on the report was the yield cut to 172.0 BPA down, 3.7 from November, with stocks at 11.332 billion vs. 11.951 billion expected, and carryout at 1.552 billion vs 1.621 billion expected. Ethanol margins will remain poor with the weekly report showing production 6,000 barrels per day higher, and stocks 408,000 barrels higher.

Basis is likely to weaken further in the short term with the futures action along with softer spread action. The daily wire will be watched for further sales with Argentina lifting export restrictions. On the March contract support is the 20-day at $4.69, with the next level up the upper Bollinger Band at $5.28, and the contract high at $5.41 1/2 above that.


Soybeans is 8 to 10 cents lower with weaker spread action and trade off 25 cents from the fresh highs scored overnight despite 464,300 metric tons of mostly old crop booked for export. Meal is 8.50 to 9.50 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The report showed yield down 0.3 to 50.2 BOA with stocks at 2.933 vs. 2.92 billion expected, and carryout at 140 million vs. 139 million expected with imports increased.

Basis has started to show pockets of weakness with crush likely to take precedence over shipping in coming weeks with crush margins narrowing overall. Brazil should catch rains short term, with the better action sticking around in Argentina for now. The March chart has resistance at the fresh high at $14.38 then the upper Bollinger Band at $14.39, with support the 20-day at 12.98.


Wheat trade is 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher with active two-sided trade continuing and Minneapolis trade the leader so far with intra-month spreads firming despite the overall soft action. The dollar remains above 90 on the index with light buying again. The report showed winter wheat acres at 31.991 vs. 31.528 million expected, with stocks at 1.674 billion vs. 1.695 million expected and carryout at 836 million vs. 857 expected. The plains are expected to see limited moisture with cold scares remaining limited for now. Kansas City is at 37-cent discount to Chicago on the March, with Minneapolis at -38 backing away from the tightest levels seen recently. Kansas City March chart support is the 20-day at $5.91, and resistance is the fresh high at $6.40.

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