WASDE Oilseeds: Lower U.S. Soybean Production, Higher Imports

    U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is estimated at 122.4 million tons, down 1.25 million from the previous report. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by an increase for canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.

    Harvested area is estimated at 82.3 million acres, up slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels.

    With higher imports and slightly higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are down 14 million bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is raised 5 million bushels to 2.2 billion, reflecting improved prospects for soybean meal exports with a lower export forecast for Argentina.

    The soybean export forecast is raised 30 million to a record 2.23 billion bushels. With lower supplies and increased use, ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, down 35 million from the previous forecast.

    Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $11.15 per bushel, up 60 cents as cash prices in Central Illinois reach 6-year highs. The soybean meal price is projected at $390 per short ton, up 20 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 38.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents.

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    Foreign 2020/21 oilseed production is relatively unchanged, with higher sunflowerseed mostly offset by lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and palm kernel output. Sunflowerseed production is increased 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million for Russia based on recent government estimates.

    Soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 0.2 million to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January. Mostly offsetting lower South American soybean production is a 2.1-million-ton increase to 19.6 million for China on recent government data.

    Global soybean stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons to 84.3 million, with lower stocks for Argentina and the United States that are partly offset by higher stocks for China.

    Full report.




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