This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol, smaller feed and residual use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, down 324 million on a lower yield and slight reduction in harvested area.
Total corn use is down 250 million bushels to 14.575 billion. Exports are down 100 million bushels, reflecting sharply lower supplies and higher expected prices.
Corn used for ethanol is lowered, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production during December as indicated by the Energy Information Administration. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter.
With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised to $4.20 per bushel.
Sorghum production is estimated 2 million bushels higher as increased harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels on lower sorghum used for ethanol. Exports are raised 15 million bushels reflecting larger exports to China.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 9.3 million tons to 1,438.5 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption, and smaller ending stocks.
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Foreign corn production is reduced with declines for Argentina and Brazil more than offsetting increases for China and India. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include reduced corn imports for the EU-27+UK, Mexico, Iran, Vietnam, Colombia, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Peru, and Saudi Arabia, with a partly offsetting increase for China.
For 2019/20, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2020 are lowered based on the shipment pace to date. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting reductions for Brazil and the EU-27+UK. Global corn stocks, at 283.8 million tons, are down 5.1 million.