WASD Rice: Higher Domestic Use, Reduced Exports

Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, decreased exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised as increased production more than offsets decreased imports.

All rice 2020/21 production is 227.6 cwt, up 1.5 million from the previous estimate. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,619 pounds per acre, up 59 pounds from the prior estimate.

Imports are lowered 0.3 million cwt to 36.2 million with all the reduction in medium- and short-grain. All rice domestic and residual use is raised 14.5 million cwt to 160.0 million on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Exports are lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 94.0 million, all for long-grain on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments for long-grain milled rice.

Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are lowered 12.4 million cwt to 38.4 million, primarily on higher projected domestic use. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per cwt to $13.20 with increases in both the long-grain and medium-and short grain prices.

The 2020/21 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 2.1 million tons to 681.5 million, primarily on higher rice production for China and the Philippines.

China’s 2020/21 production is increased 1.3 million tons to 148.3 million on the National Bureau of Statistics estimate released in December 2020. The Philippines is raised 300,000 tons to 12.0 million on record July-December 2020 production as indicated by the Philippines Statistical Authority.

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Global 2020/21 consumption is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 502.0 million, led by higher consumption by China and the United States. World trade is raised fractionally to 45.4 million tons as higher exports by India more than offset reductions for China, Peru, and the United States.

Most of the increase in India’s exports this month are expected to be destined for Bangladesh, whose imports are raised further because of its flood-reduced output.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to a record 179.5 million, primarily on the China production increase with China accounting for 65 percent of total stocks.

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