The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, decreased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, all on reduced medium- and short-grain imports. Imports are lowered by 0.8 million cwt to 36.5 million as reduced shipments from China to Puerto Rico are expected.
Exports are lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 95.0 million on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments in the first half of the marketing year (MY) with all the reduction for long-grain. Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.3 million cwt to 50.8 million, up 77 percent from last year.
These would be the largest ending stocks since the 1986/87 MY. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.10 with increases in both the long-grain and medium- and short-grain prices.
These increases are based on NASS prices reported through October and price expectations for the remainder of the MY.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly higher supplies, larger consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 679.4 million, primarily on increased beginning stocks for Pakistan and higher production for Australia.
World production for 2020/21 is raised 0.1 million tons as higher production for Australia and Peru is nearly offset by a reduction for South Korea. Global 2020/21 consumption is increased 1.2 million tons to 500.4 million, led by greater consumption for Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. World trade is raised by 1.0 million tons to 45.3 million tons, primarily on increased exports by India as its shipment pace since August remains robust.
Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.8 million tons to 179.0 million but are still record high with China and India accounting for 65 and 17 percent, respectively.