WASDE Oilseeds: Record Early Season U.S. Soybean Crush

Photo: University of Arkansas

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 123.7 million tons, down from last month on lower cottonseed production. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is increased 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion on strong crush margins and record early-season crush. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14.

Soybean and soybean product prices are forecast higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is projected at $10.55 per bushel, up 15 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $370 per short ton, up 15 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 36 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents with cash prices reaching the highest level in the past six years.

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Global oilseed production is projected at 595.7 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month, with lower soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 362.1 million.

Higher soybean crops for Canada and Uruguay are offset by lower production for Argentina, which is reduced 1 million tons to 50 million on lower harvested area. Lower production for Argentina leads to lower crush and soybean meal exports, supporting higher U.S. exports.

Global rapeseed production is projected lower as reduced estimates for Canada and the EU are partly offset by a larger Australian crop. Global sunflowerseed production is projected down 0.2 million tons to 49.5 million, with lower crops for Argentina and the EU.

Global oilseed trade for 2020/21 is projected at 191.8 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Increased soybean exports for Canada and Uruguay and increased rapeseed exports for Canada and Australia account for most of the gains.

Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 97.8 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month.

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