This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton includes lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.1 million bales, mainly due to a 900,000-bale reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 400,000 bales to 15.0 million as world consumption and U.S. export sales rise.
Ending stocks are 1.5 million bales lower, at 5.7 million or 33 percent of use. This stocks-to-use ratio would be 8 percentage points lower than in 2019/20, and the second highest since 2007/08.
Upland cotton’s projected 2020/21 season-average price is 65.0 cents per pound, 1 cent higher than last month and 5.4 cents above 2019/20.
Projected world 2020/21 ending stocks are 3.9 million bales lower this month, reflecting lower production and higher consumption. A 2.2-million-bale decline in global production is led by lower U.S. output and includes 500,000-bale reductions in both India and Pakistan, in addition to other smaller adjustments.
Consumption is projected 1.6 million bales higher, and at 115.6 million bales, is expected 13 percent above 2019/20’s depressed level. Compared to last month, 2020/21 consumption forecasts are 1.0 million bales higher for India and 500,000 bales higher for China, with smaller changes for Pakistan and Thailand.
World trade in 2020/21 is projected more than 300,000 bales higher this month, with increased imports for China and Pakistan more than offsetting lower forecasts for Bangladesh, Thailand, and Indonesia.
World ending stocks are now forecast at 97.5 million bales, 1.9 million lower than in 2019/20.