This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,447.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for essentially unchanged production, greater trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month.
Foreign corn production is forecast lower as an increase for Ukraine is more than offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Canada. Argentina corn production is reduced based on lower expected area. Canada corn output is lowered as marginally higher area is more than offset by a reduction in yield.
EU corn production is down mostly reflecting a smaller forecast for Bulgaria. Ukraine corn production is raised based on harvest results to date. Barley production is raised for Australia and Canada. Sorghum production is increased for Argentina.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the EU. Imports are raised for China and Bangladesh, with partially offsetting reductions for the EU, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and Tunisia.
China’s sorghum and barley imports are projected higher, raising the country’s total coarse grain imports 4.8 million tons to 30.9 million. If realized, this would be record high and account for 14 percent of global coarse grain trade, slightly below the high seen during 2014/15.
Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are reduced, mostly reflecting reductions for India, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and Egypt.