DTN Grain Midday: Stock Market Firm

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat is 2 to 7 cents higher at midday Monday.


The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $42.


Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents higher with spillover support from soybeans and weaker spread action after gapping higher and scoring a new high by about a penny overnight. In addition, USDA announced another export sale of 334,000 metric tons to unknown. Ethanol has lost some ground to unleaded, reducing the premium. Meanwhile, margins remain fairly stable with short-term demand the biggest issue going into the holiday week, along with further lockdowns on the horizon.

Basis remains generally strong. Weekly export inspections were in line with last week at 832,637 metric tons, with harvest effectively complete. On the December contract, support is the 20-day at $4.11 with the lower Bollinger band at $3.94 as the next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.29 3/4 overnight and the upper Bollinger band at $4.32 above that.


Soybeans trade is 9 to 11 cents higher with a gap higher opening as more weather concerns build for South America. The trade is also being supported by continued demand expectations, though the daily wire remains quiet. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. South America has some dry pockets building with northern Brazil looking to see more moisture short term. The southern third is forecast to be very dry the next week. Wetter weather is expected in Argentina after recent dryness.

Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels with freight issues remaining in play. Weekly export inspections remain strong at 2.01 million metric tons. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high of $12 scored Monday morning, with the upper Bollinger band at $12.17. Support is the 20-day at $11.20.


Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents higher at midday with Chicago action leading again. The wheat trade is following the lead of the row crops with little change to U.S. Plains weather. The dollar has turned higher after early weakness. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin, for the most part, with little change in overall conditions there. The western Plains look to see some potential improvement, with the last USDA Crop Progress report likely showing steady conditions for winter wheat.

Weekly export inspections rebounded a bit at 358,077 metric tons. KC is at 47-cent discount to Chicago with spreads remaining rangebound. Minneapolis is at -53. KC December chart resistance is the 20-day at $5.52, which we are just above overnight, and support is the lower Bollinger band at $5.40.

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