Dry weather has reduced sunflowerseed yields in Ukraine and Russia, leading to a combined 1.5-million-ton decline in the projected output this month. From the initial forecast in May, combined production is down 5.5 million tons with a year-to-year decline of 4.8 million tons. Global sunflowerseed production is 5.3 million tons below 2019/20 with additional declines forecast for the European Union, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Argentina.
Although this drop in output is significant and unexpected, the 2020/21 global harvest is still on-track to be the third largest ever.
As Russia and Ukraine represent over three-quarters of total sunflowerseed meal and oil trade, these smaller crops portend an outsized impact on products trade. These tighter exportable supplies come at a time of stronger global demand for protein meals and oils coupled with general tightening of oilseed and product markets. Consequently, lower availability of sunflower meal and oil contributes to the general strengthening in oilseed and product prices over the past few months.
Global sunflower oil prices have outgained the other major vegetable oils, up 25 percent in Argentina and Ukraine since August. In fact, prices for all major vegetable oils have strengthened. For example, August to October average export prices are up about 5 percent for rapeseed oil, 15 percent for U.S. and Argentina soy oil, nearly 20 percent for Malaysia and Indonesia palm oil.
Major Turkey Oilseeds Data Revisions
Trade data for Turkey was revised from 2013 to include trade entering and leaving customs warehouses and free zones. As a result, there are some notable increases to both Turkey imports and exports. The most substantial change in oilseeds affected Turkey soy meal, which boosted both imports and exports every year since 2013. Additionally, these changes had a ripple effect on data series for major importers of Turkey oilseeds and products such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt.