WASDE Rice: Lower Exports, Higher Domestic Stocks

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for decreased supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered as NASS decreased the all rice production forecast by 0.2 million cwt to 226.1 million, all on lower yields. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,560 pounds per acre, down 7 pounds from the previous forecast. Exports are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 97.0 million on the slow pace of sales and shipments in the early part of the marketing year (MY) with all the reduction for long-grain.

Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt to 49.5 million, up 72 percent from last year. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per cwt to $12.90 with increases in both the long-grain and medium- and short-grain prices. These increases are based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the MY.

The 2020/21 global outlook is for higher supplies, lower consumption, trade nearly unchanged, and increased stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 679.0 million, primarily on increased beginning stocks for Iraq, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. World production for 2020/21 is lowered 0.4 million tons to 501.1 million, mainly on a reduction for Bangladesh due to damaging floods, but global production remains a record.

Global 2020/21 consumption is lowered fractionally but remains a record at 499.2 million tons as reductions for Bangladesh and Cambodia are partially offset by China. World trade is virtually unchanged at 44.3 million tons as lower exports for China and the United States are almost offset by higher exports by Turkey and Cambodia.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons to a record 179.8 million with China and India accounting for 65 and 17 percent of the total, respectively.

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