WASDE Oilseeds: Lower Domestic Soybean Production, Ending Stocks

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The U.S. soybean outlook for 2020/21 is for lower production and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.17 billion bushels, down 98 million on lower yields. Lower yields are reported for several major producing states, including Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and Nebraska. With reduced production, soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, down 100 million from last month. If realized, soybean ending stocks would be at the lowest level in the past seven years.

Soybean and product prices for 2020/21 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $10.40 per bushel, up 60 cents. The soybean meal price is forecast at $355.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price is forecast at 34.5 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month.

The 2020/21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and crush, resulting in lower exports of oilseed meals and vegetable oil. Foreign oilseed production is lowered 5.6 million tons to 473.3 million, mainly on lower soybean crops for Argentina and India and lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and Russia.

Yields are reduced for Ukraine and Russia on dry weather conditions during the season and recent harvest results. Argentina’s soybean production is lowered as economic uncertainty reduces area expansion. Crop reductions result in lower exports of soybean and sunflowerseed meal and oil.

Foreign oilseed stocks are increased slightly as lower cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanut stocks are offset by higher soybean stocks. Foreign soybean stocks are increased mainly on 2019/20 revisions to imports and crush for China and Argentina, respectively.

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