This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates are virtually unchanged from October. The U.S. production forecast is marginally higher, at 17.1 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks remain at 7.2 million bales and, at 42 percent of use, would be the highest stocks-to-use ratio since 2007/08.
The marketing-year average price received by upland producers is forecast at 64.0 cents per pound, 5 percent (3 cents) above the October forecast, and 7 percent higher than 2019/20’s price of 59.6 cents.
World 2020/21 cotton production is projected marginally lower than in October, but with slightly higher beginning stocks and slightly lower use, global ending stocks are up 300,000 bales from the previous month. Global 2020/21 beginning stocks are forecast 378,000 bales higher this month, largely reflecting an increase in Brazil’s 2019/20 crop.
Production changes for 2020/21 include an 800,000-bale reduction for Pakistan, a 400,000-bale increase for Australia, and a 250,000-bale increase for China. Smaller, offsetting changes occurred in estimates for Central Asia, and the global total is 160,000 bales lower than in October. World cotton use is also projected 160,000 bales lower this month, largely reflecting expected lower mill consumption in Pakistan.
World trade is projected 605,000 bales higher this month as Pakistan’s imports increase in response to the smaller crop, with Brazil and Australia export estimates higher as well.