WASDE Coarse Grains: Lower U.S. Corn Production, Increased Exports

    Harvested corn pouring into grain truck. Photo: University of Tennessee

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.507 billion bushels, down 215 million with a reduction in yield to 175.8 bushels per acre. Corn exports are raised 325 million bushels to 2.650 billion, which if realized would be record high.

    Projected feed and residual use is lowered 75 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. With supply falling and use increasing, corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are down 465 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The corn price is raised 40 cents to $4.00 per bushel.

    Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 11.1 million tons to 1,447.8 million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged use, and greater stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Ukraine, the EU, Russia, and Moldova more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Laos.

    For Ukraine, the projected corn yield is lowered based on continued poor harvest results to date and if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13.

    Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include larger corn exports for the United States, Turkey, and South Africa, with mostly offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Corn imports are raised for China and South Korea, but lowered for the EU, Mexico, and Iran.

    For China, while the National Development and Reform Commission has not made any public statements indicating additional corn import quota has been allocated, shipment data for exporting countries through early November indicates they will exceed their tariff rate quota level of 7.2 million tons.

    Barley exports are raised for the EU, with higher imports forecast for China. Total coarse grain imports for China are forecast to reach a record 26 million tons, just above the previous high of 25.7 million reached during 2014/15.

    Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and South Africa that are partly offset by reductions for the EU and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 291.4 million tons, are down 9.0 million from last month.

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