Like so many other commodities markets, the cotton market closed nervously on Monday, driven by technical selling, election jitters and a spike in COVID-19 infections. After peaking last Wednesday at 72.60 cents, spot December began to unravel and quickly gathered downside momentum. Spot December hit a 68-cent the low Sunday night. Of course, with the harvest resuming in many areas, additional selling pressure is anticipated. The other event is the presidential election Tuesday. Whatever the outcome, it will sow the seeds of volatility and distrust for months to come.
Monday afternoon, USDA will update its latest harvest data. No question Hurricane Zeta and other storms have not only damaged but delayed much of the U.S. harvest. It is thought, across the South, harvesting efforts are running three to five weeks behind historical norms. Current weather forecasts, such as the six- to 10-day outlook, indicate above normal rainfall for the Southeast.
The U.S. dollar is higher Monday, in a clear flight-to-quality move. It is thought, among trading circles, a Trump victory will strengthen the dollar, while a Biden win would grossly weaken the dollar. The latter point implies that a new massive stimulus, that is the printing of money out of thin air, would be the economic order of the day, thus diluting the buying power of the greenback. We’re sure both sides have their fingers crossed.
For Monday, December cotton closed at 68.73 cents, down 0.19 cent, March settled at 69.72 cents, down 0.06 cent and December 2021 finished at 68.51 cents, up 0.10 cent. Estimated volume was 37,149 contracts.