DTN Cotton Open: Higher Despite Poor Sales

Coosa, Georgia, cotton field ready for harvest. Photo: Nick McMichen

The cotton market is, thus far, sloughing off disappointing export sales to continue its upward trek towards the 70-cent mark.

A summary of that USDA report is as follows: Net sales of 98,900 RB for 2020/2021 were down 45 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Increases primarily for Pakistan (36,500 RB, including 500 RB switched from Indonesia), China (20,000 RB, including decreases of 13,200 RB), Guatemala (14,900 RB), Vietnam (13,800 RB), and Turkey (10,400 RB), were offset by reductions for Bangladesh (4,000 RB) and Japan (1,300 RB).

For 2021/2022, total net sales of 13,200 RB were for China. Exports of 192,600 RB were up 35 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports were primarily to China (59,500 RB), Vietnam (51,200 RB), Mexico (20,400 RB), Pakistan (13,000 RB), and Turkey (9,700 RB).

Net sales of Pima totaling 17,800 RB were down 18 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (5,900 RB), Bangladesh (4,800 RB), India (4,200 RB, including decreases 1,800 RB), Switzerland (1,300 RB), and Pakistan (1,000 RB).

Exports of 12,700 RB were down 20 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (8,200 RB), India (1,300 RB), Peru (700 RB), Vietnam (700 RB), and Honduras (700 RB).

In other news, there are reports the Indian crop is currently being adversely affected by lingering monsoonal rains. Typically this season runs from June to September and India receives some 80% of its annual rainfall. This year those monsoons came earlier than normal, and at times were hugely intense. During the summer there were reports of widespread flooding causing loss of life and crops.

On Monday, USDA will report on the status of the U.S. harvest. Given this week has been pretty clear, domestic gathering has been running at a brisk pace. However, the 6-10 day weather forecasts now include above normal rainfall for the U.S. Delta, as well as the Southeast. The 1-5 day outlook shows a higher probability for rain for Arkansas, northern Louisiana and northern Mississippi. At last tally, the U.S. harvest was 26% complete.

For Friday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 68.80 cents and 68.25 cents with overhead resistance at 70 cents. The current estimated volume is 9505 contracts.

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