WASDE Rice: Domestic Usage Unchanged, Ending Stocks Raised

Rice field. Photo: Horizon Ag

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised as NASS increased the all rice production forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 226.3 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,567 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds from the previous forecast.

Supplies are also increased on higher projected imports, which are raised by 0.5 million cwt to 37.3 million, with all the increase for long grain. This nearly matches last year’s record imports as strong demand for Asian aromatics is expected to continue for 2020/21. Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt to 47.7 million, up 66 percent from last year.

The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $12.80.

The 2020/21 global outlook is for smaller supplies, greater consumption, lower trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 2.7 million tons to 678.6 million, primarily on reduced beginning stocks for India as its combined 2019/20 consumption and exports are raised 5.0 million tons.

India’s consumption is increased on the introduction of government food assistance programs to address economic disruptions caused by COVID-19. India’s exports are raised on its recent robust monthly shipment pace. World production for 2020/21 is raised 1.9 million tons to a record 501.5 million, mainly on higher projected output for India and the Philippines.

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Global 2020/21 consumption is raised by 3.0 million tons to a record 499.4 million, primarily on increases for India and Thailand. World trade is decreased 0.2 million tons to 44.3 million tons as higher exports for India are more than offset by reductions for Thailand and Pakistan.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons to 179.2 million, still a record, with China and India accounting for 65 and 18 percent of the total, respectively.

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