WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Production Down on Reduced Harvested Area

U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 126.6 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset with higher canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 45 million on lower harvested area.

Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 82.3 million, with reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean yield is projected at 51.9 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast.

Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, down 96 million on lower production and beginning stocks. Despite reduced supplies, soybean exports are raised 75 million bushels on record early-season sales.

With smaller supplies and increased exports, ending stocks are projected at 290 million bushels, down 170 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecast at $9.80 per bushel, up 55 cents reflecting smaller supplies and higher exports. The soybean meal price is forecast at $335.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 32.5 cents per pound.

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The 2020/21 foreign oilseed production is lowered 2.6 million tons to 478.9 million mainly on lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, the EU, Moldova, and Argentina. Ukraine’s sunflowerseed output is lowered 2 million tons to 15 million on drought conditions during the season and harvest results to date.

Dryness also impacted yield prospects for Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. Lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine results in lower global sunflower meal and oil exports. Partly offsetting are higher exports of palm oil from Malaysia and rapeseed meal from Russia.

The 2020/21 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower beginning stocks, higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered mainly on higher 2019/20 crush for China that is partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks for Brazil. The 2020/21 soybean imports, crush, and meal consumption are higher for China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam, aligning with prior year increases in domestic meal use. Argentina’s exports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to stronger competition from the United States.

With lower supplies in the United States and higher foreign use, global ending stocks are reduced 4.9 million tons to 88.7 million.

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