WASDE Cotton: U.S. Production Down Slightly, Ending Stocks Unchanged

Cotton gin workers remove cotton module wraps. ©Debra L Ferguson

The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 17.0 million bales. Domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 42 percent of use, compared with 41 percent in 2019/20.

The 2020/21 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 61.0 cents per pound, 2 cents higher than last month and slightly above the final 2019/20 price of 59.6 cents.

The 2020/21 world cotton supply and demand forecasts feature lower production, higher consumption and trade, and lower ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered more than 900,000 bales with declines in Mali, Pakistan, and Greece offsetting a larger expected crop in Nigeria. Consumption is 1.5 million bales higher, largely reflecting revisions for China and India.

World trade is projected about 500,000 bales higher this month, reflecting a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, and on the export side, higher exports by Brazil and Uzbekistan offsetting a decline for Mali.

World ending stocks in 2020/21 are now projected 2.7 million bales lower than in September, at 101.1 million bales, equivalent to 89 percent of consumption.

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