WASDE Coarse Grains: Lower Domestic Corn Production, Usage

    Corn harvest. Photo: Kostic Dusan, 123rf

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.722 billion bushels, down 178 million with a reduction in harvested area and a slight decline in yield to 178.4 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month, on a smaller crop and lower beginning stocks.

    Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels, based on weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration into early October. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on a reduced crop and higher expected prices. Corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered 336 million bushels.

    The corn price is raised 10 cents to $3.60 per bushel.

    Grain sorghum production is forecast higher from last month, with a 0.2-bushel per acre increase in the yield to 74.1 bushels per acre and an increase in harvested area.

    Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast lower to 1,458.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased use, and greater stocks relative to last month.

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    Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher with increases for several countries, including Serbia, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Burkina, and Mali more than offsetting declines for Ukraine and the EU. The projected corn yield for Ukraine is lowered based on reported harvest results to date.

    Corn exports are raised for Serbia but lowered for Ukraine and the EU. For 2019/20, corn exports for Argentina are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on larger-than-expected shipments through September. For 2020/21, corn imports are lowered for the EU, Iran, and Kenya, but raised for Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Iraq.

    Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Mexico, the EU, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 300.5 million tons, are down 6.3 million from last month.

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