WASDE Wheat: Greater Global Consumption, Supplies

Photo: University of Arkansas

The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes for wheat exports. The projected season-average farm price remains at $4.50 per bushel.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 3.3 million tons to 1,070.3 million, mostly on higher production in Australia and Canada more than offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina. Australia’s production is raised 2.5 million tons to 28.5 million, mainly based on the ABARES production forecast issued September 7.

Canada’s production is increased 2.0 million tons to 36.0 million, primarily on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 31. This is the second and third-highest wheat production on record for Canada and Australia, respectively. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million on continued dry conditions and possible frost damage. On net, global 2020/21 production is raised 4.5 million tons to a record high 770.5 million.

World consumption is increased 0.8 million tons to 750.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 189.4 million on higher exports for Australia and Canada. The largest import change this month is for China, where imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on an early strong pace of U.S. sales and shipments to China and increased exportable supplies from Australia and Canada.

If realized, these would be the largest China wheat imports since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to 319.4 million to a new record, with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively.

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