The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for lower beginning stocks, with increased production, imports, and total use. The August 21 NASS Rice Stocks report reduced 2020/21 beginning stocks by 2.0 million cwt. Imports for 2020/21 are raised 0.8 million cwt to 36.8 million on expectations of continued strong demand for combined medium- and short-grain varieties.
In the September Crop Production report, NASS raised the 2020/21 rice crop by 6.9 million cwt to 225.0 million on increased harvested area. The average all rice yield is down 71 pounds per acre to 7,529 pounds. Long grain production is raised 9.8 million cwt to 168.9 million, and combined medium- and short-grain production is cut 3.0 million cwt to 56.0 million.
With the increased supplies, domestic and residual use and exports are each raised 2.0 million cwt, all long grain. All rice ending stocks are increased by 1.6 million cwt to 45.9 million and the season-average farm price is dropped $0.10 per cwt to $12.60.
Foreign 2020/21 rice supplies are lowered fractionally with several, mostly offsetting, production changes led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for India and a 1.4-million-ton reduction for Thailand. The India change is based on updated government statistics, and Thailand’s smaller crop reflects limited water supplies in irrigated production areas.
Global exports are up fractionally led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for India that is offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease for Thailand; both changes are based on each country’s production revisions. With supplies down and global utilization virtually unchanged, global ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 184.8 million but remain record large.