WASDE Cotton: Lower Domestic Production, Exports, End Stocks

Cotton harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

The 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher beginning stocks relative to last month but lower production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks.

Production is lowered 1.0 million bales to 17.1 million, with a lower projection for every region. Mill use is projected 200,000 bales lower this month, but compared with its revised 2019/20 level is still expected to rise 16 percent. Exports and ending stocks are 400,000 bales lower, reflecting reduced U.S. supply and stronger foreign competition.

Ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 7.2 million bales, equivalent to 42 percent of use. The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month.

The 2020/21 world cotton projections include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Beginning stocks are lowered in India, more than offsetting increases for China and Brazil.

Production is higher in China, India, and Australia, but lower in the United States, Pakistan, and Turkey. Consumption is lower in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. World trade is slightly higher, with increases for Australia, Brazil, and India offsetting lower U.S. exports. Imports are forecast higher for Pakistan and Turkey, but lower for Vietnam.

World ending stocks of cotton in 2020/21 are projected at 103.8 million bales, 1.1 million lower than in August, and 4.4 million higher than in 2019/20.

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