WASDE Coarse Grain: Domestic Corn Production Down, Exports Raised

Corn pouring out of an auger during corn harvest. Photo: ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area.

Corn supplies are reduced from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets greater beginning stocks mostly due to lower estimated exports for 2019/20. Corn used for ethanol for 2020/21 is lowered 100 million bushels based on the continued slow recovery in motor gasoline demand as a result of COVID-19.

Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 253 million bushels from last month. The corn price is raised 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel.

This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, with fractionally higher trade and lower stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting a reduction for Romania. Ukraine corn production is down, as acute short-term drought across much of the primary growing areas lowered corn yield prospects after a favorable start to the summer growing season.

Corn production is raised for Brazil, as high domestic prices are expected to support an expansion in area. Corn production is also increased for India and Nigeria. Barley production is raised for Russia, the EU, and Australia.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include barley export increases for Russia and Australia. Corn exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. Corn imports are raised for Venezuela. China’s corn feed and residual use for 2019/20 and 2020/21 is raised from last month, based on observed soybean meal equivalent protein consumption and current corn prices.

Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last month, as increases for India and Nigeria are more than offset by a decline for China.

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