The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow down 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly lower with crude down .20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $14.
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday, with trade pulling back from Thursday’s strength with consolidation needed to sustain the rally.
- Ethanol margins are seeing some pressure from the corn rally but are stable overall.
- Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days, with pressure likely at locations with a strong crop coming soon.
- Storm damage will continue to be debated until the next crop condition report.
- On the September contract, trade has support at the 20-day moving average at $3.18, which we moved above Thursday with the upper Bollinger Band at $3.33, the next round up.
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with demand optimism providing support with another 126,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China with further export bookings while anticipated yields will continue to limit upside.
- Meal is narrowly mixed and oil narrowly mixed with crush margins remaining solid overall.
- The real remains in the tighter recent range vs. the dollar. Weather looks to continue to be good for most into pod fill.
- The September chart now has resistance at the $9.05 recent high with support at the 20-day moving average at $8.86.
Wheat futures are 5 to 11 cents higher with trade working to pull further off the lower end of the range with support from the weaker dollar while spring wheat harvest moves on, with intermonth spreads firmer and Chicago trade leading.
- The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall with Black Sea origin still firmly in control.
- KC is at a 76-cent discount to Chicago with spreads widening back from the narrowest action in a month, while Minneapolis is back to a 4-cent discount. KC September chart support is the fresh low at $4.09 3/4, with the 20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.32.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at email@example.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala