WASDE Cotton: Higher Supplies, Production, Decreased Consumption

This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast.

The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations. Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019. With reduced harvested area in the Southwest, U.S. yield is projected at a record 938 pounds/acre, 14 percent higher than in 2019.

Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales as lower than expected 2019/20 U.S. mill use offsets an upward revision in exports. Expected 2020/21 mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, while ending stocks are 800,000 bales higher.

The season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month.

This month’s 2020/21 world cotton outlook includes higher production, and ending stocks, but lower beginning stocks, consumption and trade. World production is 1.3 million bales higher as lower production in Mali and Greece is more than offset by increases for India, the United States, and Australia.

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Expected 2020/21 world consumption is 1.2 million bales lower this month, with declines in India, China, Pakistan, Brazil, and Indonesia offsetting gains for Bangladesh and Turkey.

Imports are projected lower in Pakistan, Indonesia, and India, and higher in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Malaysia.

This month, 2020/21 world ending stocks are projected 2.1 million bales higher than the previous month and 4.4 million bales higher than in 2019/20.

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