This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.
The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota.
Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices.
With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel.
Sorghum production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with the yield 9.1 bushels per acre above last month’s historical median yield. Sorghum exports are raised reflecting an increase in the expected amount of shipments to China.
This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries including Poland, Italy, and Hungary.
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Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand. Barley production is lowered for the EU, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and Ukraine.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include corn export increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Burma. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada, and Thailand, but reduced for India. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and Argentina, with higher imports forecast for China.
Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative to last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India.