The outlook for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 U.S. rice is for increased supplies, higher domestic use, and lower exports while ending stocks are reduced for 2019/20 and increased for 2020/21.
All rice supplies for 2020/21 are raised 3.5 million cwt this month based on a 4.5-million-cwt production increase and a 1.0-million-cwt import increase, which are partially offset by a 2.0-million-cwt reduction in beginning stocks.
The NASS Rice Stocks report, and surging imports, implied significantly higher domestic and residual use than previously estimated for 2019/20. Imports for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 are raised to record-high levels, primarily reflecting strong demand for imported Asian aromatic varieties.
Long-grain production for 2020/21 is raised 6.3 million cwt to 161.8 million on increased planted acreage, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 1.8 million to 58.9 million on reduced area, based on the June 30 NASS Acreage report.
Rising domestic and residual use is expected to continue in 2020/21.
Rice News on AgFax
Exports for 2019/20 are lowered 1.5 million cwt on continued uncompetitive prices for U.S. long grain as well as recent cancelations of outstanding sales; 2020/21 exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt (though still up 3.5 million cwt from the previous market year) on expectations of continued strong international competition for long grain exports.
All rice ending stocks for 2020/21 are raised 0.5 million cwt to 43.8 million and the season-average farm price for all rice is lowered $0.20 per cwt to $12.70.
Global 2020/21 rice supplies are raised fractionally on higher beginning stocks and production. The higher 2020/21 beginning stocks stem from several 2019/20 changes including a 0.9-million-ton production increase that is only partially offset by increased domestic and residual use.
Global 2020/21 production and domestic use are each raised 0.5 million tons, and both remain record high. With supplies rising more than use, global 2020/21 ending stocks are a record high 185.8 million tons with China and India respectively holding 63 percent and 21 percent.