Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat is flat to 5 cents higher.
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow 190 lower. The dollar index is 2 points higher. Interest rate products are flat. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.15. Livestock trade is flat to slightly lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $13.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with a less threatening forecast and spillover from softer outside markets and little fresh bullish news. The forecast has higher temperatures and spotty rain for most areas into mid-July with the second week potentially looking cooler now. Ethanol margins will likely see continued pressure as gasoline demand wobbles out of the Fourth of July weekend.
The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed conditions 2 percentage points lower to 71% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, with silking at 10% vs. 16% on average. On the September contract, support is the 20-day at $3.34 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $3.49.
Soybeans trade is narrowly mixed with trade able to firm back to the upper end of the range after early weakness. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The real is up slightly against the dollar and at the midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days. Drier weather into mid-month for many will add support, but we remain a way from the key podfill time frame.
The weekly Crop Progress report showed blooming at 31% vs. 24% on average, blooming at 2% vs. 4% on average, with 71% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, unchanged from the previous week. The August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with support the upper Bollinger band at $8.95.
Wheat is flat to 4 cents higher with winter wheat harvest moving toward the back half of the run, while Russian harvest will continue to expand with reduced estimates from France on early issues. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with U.S. export competitiveness improved with the sharp break in the dollar. KC is at a 54-cent discount to Chicago on the August, while Minneapolis is back to a 16-cent premium. Winter wheat harvest was 56% complete vs. 55% on average, with 51% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week. Spring wheat is 63% headed vs. 68% on average, and 70% good to excellent and 6% poor to very poor, up 1 percentage point. The September KC chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $4.22, and resistance is the 20-day at $4.44.