WASDE Rice: Greater Domestic Use, Increased Ending Stocks

Sunrise over rice field at flood. ©Debra L Ferguson

The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for larger supplies, greater domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Most of the 2020/21 revisions are the result of 2019/20 supply and use changes.

The 2020/21 all rice beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million cwt to 32.0 million, a result of higher 2019/20 imports, now forecast at a near-record 33.5 million, raising 2019/20 ending stocks.

All of the increase in 2019/20 imports is for long-grain, based on a record import pace to date, primarily aromatics from Thailand. Long-term growth in imports is expected to continue in 2020/21 as projected imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to a record-high 33.6 million.

The combination of increased beginning stocks and higher imports raises 2020/21 total supplies by 2.5 million cwt to 281.8 million. Total 2019/20 domestic use and residual is raised 2.0 million cwt to 135.0 million, based on the higher import forecast. Similarly, total 2020/21 domestic use is also raised by 2.0 million cwt to 139.5 million, based on higher imports.

Total 2019/20 exports are lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 96.0 million, all for long-grain as the U.S. is becoming increasingly uncompetitive as the marketing year nears completion. Total 2020/21 exports are reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 99.0 million, all based on lower long-grain exports as the U.S. is expected to remain uncompetitive early in the marketing year.

Projected 2020/21 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.5 million cwt to 43.3 million, up 35 percent from the 2019/20 revised ending stocks. The 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $12.90 per cwt, compared to the upwardly revised 2019/20 SAFP of $13.10.

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The 2020/21 global outlook is for larger supplies, fractionally lower consumption and trade, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised by 1.0 million tons to a record 683.3 million, mainly on higher beginning stocks for China and Thailand.

World production is only fractionally higher at 502.1 million tons as increases for Brazil and Nigeria are almost completely offset by a reduction for Vietnam, with global production remaining record high.

World 2020/21 consumption is lowered by 0.1 million tons to 498.0 million, still a record, as decreases for Vietnam and Philippines are not completely offset by increases for Brazil, China, Nigeria, and the U.S. Global trade is reduced 0.3 million tons to 44.9 million, primarily on lower exports from Vietnam and China.

Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are raised 1.2 million tons to a record high of 185.4 million with China accounting for 63 percent of the total.

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